Queueing Systems Bayesian network management

We formulate some general network and risk management problems in a Bayesian context and point out some of the essential features We argue and demonstrate that when one is interested in rare events the Bayesian and frequentist approaches can lead to very di erent strategies the former typically leads to strate gies which are more conservative We also present an asymptotic formula for the predictive probability of ruin for a random walk with positive drift for large initial capital and large number of past observations This is a preliminary investigation which raises many interesting questions for future research